Articles

China: Back on Center Stage

In the best-case scenario for China, Beijing achieves its economic development goals and reunifies peacefully with Taiwan, all while containing tensions with the United States. Three key developments are necessary for China to achieve its ideal outcome and maintain cooperation with Russia, without interfering in Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. First, China meets its economic modernization goals, becoming the envy of the modern world. Secondly, China mediates an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in doing so, lends considerable momentum to the Global Security Initiative, which becomes the main architecture for conflict-resolution.[1] Beijing’s more accommodating rhetoric and diplomatic successes mitigate the urgency for other Asian powers to balance against it, decreasing Taipei’s diplomatic support in the process. Finally, as China’s authoritarian political and economic model reigns supreme, democracies backslide world-wide, and Taiwan’s government agrees to negotiate on unification. In this scenario, the Sino-Russian relationship is considerably imbalanced, but the bilateral military relationship continues, and Moscow joins Chinese-led international institutions.

 

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