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The Arab Spring, a wave of revolutions in nondemocratic countries in North Africa and the Middle East, forced some dictators to flee from their countries while others stayed and one faced intervention by an international coalition. Using a stylized game-theoretic model, this article analyzes the decision-making process of a dictator and explains the different outcomes. A rational dictator only leaves the country if the expected costs from punishment outweigh the benefits of staying. For the international coalition, the model identifies a trade-off between the cost of the intervention and the potential for economic benefit from a successful intervention. A higher number of participants in the coalition increases the probability of the intervention’s success. However, if the intervention fails, coalition participants lose all economic benefits. Therefore, an intervening country benefits from the participation of other countries because it lowers the risk of failure. If the intervention succeeds, the economic benefits are shared among all intervening countries. Thus, an intervening country has the most to gain if it acts alone. Furthermore, a country can deliberately abstain from an intervention to benefit from higher shares of economic profit if the intervention fails and coalition members lose all economic benefits. The model can help explain the rarity of unanimous votes for an intervention and the complex and tedious bargaining process surrounding decisions to intervene.

This paper will trace the origins of the Indo-Pakistani rivalry in Afghanistan, assess India’s current status and role in Afghanistan in the context of the Indo-Pakistani rivalry and discuss the implications for American policy.

In April 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Pakistani Taliban was a “mortal threat” to the world.1 By that time, militants associated with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, or the “Pakistani Taliban’’) were closing in on the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, having already seized much of the Pashtun belt...

Afghanistan’s non-democratic local powers grow stronger while international efforts to ballast Kabul’s government falter, so robust central governance continues to remain elusive to Afghanistan’s leaders. Despite the influx of foreign aid, development agendas, democratic processes and urbanization at the center, localities at the state’s periphery—predominantly in the south—are heavily reliant on self-administration and service provision...